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Morgan Stanley: temporaneo rafforzamento EUR/USD, poi Draghi deludera’ i mercati

Nel report giornaliero di Morgan Stanley sulle valute, gli analisti della banca americana prevedono un temporaneo rafforzamento dell’euro contro il dollaro in attesa dell’annuncio del QE da parte di Mario Draghi, salvo poi prevedere una conseguente ripresa del trend ribassista (“l’acquisto di bond sovrani da parte degli istituti centrali nazionali potrebbe deludere i mercati e porre qualche dubbio circa l’efficacia del provevdimento”).

ABC Economics

The Morgan Stanley FX Positioning Tracker shows a scaling back of EUR short positioning in the past week ahead of this week’s ECB meeting (see Exhibit). Increasing expectations that the ECB will announce a sovereign QE programme this Thursday have led to a build-up of EUR short positions, reaching extreme levels. However, with the debate over the details continuing, the prospects of being able to implement such action at this week’s meeting appear ambitious, according to our European Economics team. As a result, a more cautious stance seems to be developing in the market, hence a scaling back of positions. Indeed, the discussion in the press in recent days, with politicians and policy-makers giving interviews on the shape and scope of QE, tends to suggest that the details are far from finalised. Risk-sharing seems the major topic of debate among European policy-makers currently, with suggestions that risk from purchases could stay with national central banks being a compromise likely aimed at winning support from Germany, where there are objections to risk-pooling. German Chancellor Merkel has also given interviews warning that ECB policy should not provide the incentive for countries to relax reform measures.

Positioning for disappointment: Markets would likely view sovereign bond purchases on a national basis as providing a less effective form of QE and this will likely be seen as a disappointment. In this scenario, an EUR-corrective rebound would still be expected, providing selling opportunities. Indeed, even with the recent scaling back of positions, we believe that the market is still likely to be relatively heavily short EUR positioned going into the ECB meeting, but the scope for shorts to be re-established could limit the rebound. We view any EURUSD rebounds post the ECB meeting as selling opportunities.

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