Fonte/Source, CNBC, Plunging oil prices and a strengthening dollar could force the United States into a recession by the end of 2015, according to Raoul Pal of The Global Macro Investor newsletter.
The greenback’s strength has pushed oil prices lower and sent fear across the markets. Pal said he now feels that the U.S. is heading toward a recession in the near future.
“There’s a probability that the U.S. goes into recession this year alone,” Pal said in an interview on CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Tuesday.
Pal based his prediction on a number of factors, centered on his view that current trends in the dollar and oil are likely to not only continue, but accelerate.
Regarding the strength in the dollar, Pal said the dollar index could climb another 25 percent before the bull run is over. “If we look back historically at how these big dollar bull markets go, I think it’s going to go, using the (dollar index), at least to 125, maybe even further.”
Historically the price of oil moves inversely to the strength of the U.S. dollar.
Pal said that the historical relationship, along with weakness in Europe and China, has led oil companies to put crude into storage in hopes of waiting out the downturn in prices. Crude stores are filling “at an incredible rate” and could be full by summer, he said. That could lead to even more dire consequences.
“Any oil that is then brought out of the ground will either have to be sold into the normal market, which will be at much cheaper prices, or they’re going to have to shut down production,” he said. “I think that shutdown of production is something that people haven’t really thought through yet.”
Pal said the impact of a large-scale production shutdown could have severe ripple effects across the economy.
“So many of these companies are going to have to shut down production, and the economic damage from that, both in terms of loss of wealth and loss of production, is significant.”