Fonte/Source, BloombergBusiness, Federal Reserve officials last month didn’t expect to raise rates at their next meeting in June even as they concluded that a first-quarter economic slowdown was unlikely to persist, minutes of the meeting show.
Many of the participants “thought it unlikely that the data available in June would provide sufficient confirmation that the conditions for raising the target range for the federal funds rate had been satisfied,” according to minutes of the April 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee session released Wednesday in Washington.
That sentiment outweighed the opinion of “a few” members, who said they anticipated the economy would be ready for a June liftoff, the minutes showed. At the same time, officials didn’t rule out the option of tightening at that time.
The minutes also confirmed the FOMC’s statement in April that it expects the economy to return to a “moderate pace” of growth after a first-quarter slowdown. Since the meeting, payrolls figures have improved, while weaker-than-forecast data on manufacturing and retail sales prompted economists to mark down projections for second-quarter economic growth.
Officials are weighing the timing of the first interest-rate increase since 2006. Most expect to tighten later this year and have said they could move at any meeting from June onward, depending on the outlook for jobs and higher inflation.
Gross domestic product rose just 0.2 percent at an annual pace in the three months through March, versus 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014. The FOMC in April said “economic growth slowed during the winter months, in part reflecting transitory factors.”
The minutes revealed some details of the committee’s discussion about how much of the slowdown resulted from causes that are likely to fade.
Those reasons included severe winter weather, a labor dispute at West Coast ports, and a “pattern” of weak first quarter economic data over a number of years.
A strong dollar was one reason other committee members thought recent weakness in economic growth could persist.
The slowing effect on exports from earlier dollar strengthening might have effects that are “larger and longer-lasting than previously anticipated,” the minutes state.
While the dollar’s value was falling back, it “had increased significantly since the middle of last year, and it was seen as likely to continue to be a factor restraining U.S. net exports and economic growth for a time.”
Negative interest rates on sovereign debt in “some key European economies” could be one factor underpinning the dollar’s strength, committee members suggested.