This tag is associated with 14 posts

Relationship between oil prices and costs in the upstream industry

Extract from a research published on the VOXEU portal. Written by Alexander Naumov and Gerhard Toews (22 February 2016) The recent dramatic decline in the price of oil runs counter to the argument that oil prices should be high because of the high costs. This column presents new evidence on this relationship. Using a representative global … Continue reading

Gold-to-oil ratio peaks as the Perfect Storm nears

Hereafter an interesting graph tracking how many barrels of oil that a single ounce of gold can buy. This ratio has never ever been this high. For the last 30 years, when the ratio of gold-to-oil spiked, something systemically serious occurred. Either energy crisis, recessions or wars.    Graph sources from zerohedge.com Please read our … Continue reading

The Gaddafi lesson for Syria. Will VIX and Brent Oil follow the same pattern?

Stefano Fugazzi (ABC Economics) – The odds are against Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. As the conflict in Syria intensifies with US President Obama urging Russia to “act together against terror”, Assad’s days in power are nearing the end. Will VIX and Brent Oil follow the same pattern? The following analysis aims at observing how VIX … Continue reading

VIX and Terrorism. Why a coincidence with no causal effects

Stefano Fugazzi (ABC Economics) – Earlier this week we published two interesting researches elaborated by ABC Economics which assessed whether market movers could have possibly anticipated the occurrence of terrorist acts. The VIX Index Always Predicts Terrorist Attacks (?) Gold and Oil contraddict VIX Index on terror attack warnings To test this hypothesis we selected: … Continue reading

Persistent low oil prices to put out of business 1 in 4 firms

Stefano Fugazzi (ABC Ecocnomics) – According to Bloomberg, last week we witnessed the biggest surge in US energy credit risk since December 2014 with the index breaking into the 1,000bps – as shown in the graph below: Why is the US energy credit risk on the rise? According to Bloomberg, falling oil prices are putting under pressure not … Continue reading

The geopolitics of the Scrooge McDuck Universe

Once upon a time when there was a wave of duck and mouse immigrants from the Southern regions of the Scrooge McDuck Universe, the Italian Uncle Scrooge used to strike a deal with Peg-Leg Pete (who used to share his tent with a few Amazons): infrastructures in return for fewer, if any, ducks and mice … Continue reading

Oil prices, inflation expectations, and monetary policy

An article originally appeared on VOXEU / The 2014 decline in oil prices lowered short-run inflation. Before the Global Crisis, the medium-term correlation between oil prices and inflation was weak, but it has become much stronger since the onset of the Crisis. This column suggests that following the onset of the Crisis, inflation expectations reacted … Continue reading

What drives co-movements in the oil price and the dollar?

BIS Research (July 2015) – The sharp appreciation of the US dollar and the rapid fall in the oil price are two of the most noteworthy market developments of the past year. Diverging monetary policies played a key role in the dollar’s strength, whereas a combination of increasing supply, falling demand and market-specific factors were important in explaining … Continue reading

Prezzo del petrolio: perché è così instabile

Per gli esperti ci vorranno ancora due o tre anni per riportare le quotazioni a 100 dollari Articolo ripreso da panorama.it / È durato solo quattro giorni il rally del prezzo del petrolio. Quattro giorni di interruzione del brusco e prolungato movimento al ribasso (-46% il crollo delle quotazioni del greggio nel corso del 2014) … Continue reading

Il prezzo del petrolio estende il rimbalzo, Brent in fase toro

Yahoo! Finance – Il prezzo del petrolio ha chiuso oggi per la quarta seduta di fila in rialzo. Il future sul Brent con scadenza marzo ha guadagnato all’ICE il 5,8% a $57,91 al barile. Il benchmark europeo è salito dai suoi recenti minimi del 24% ed è entrato in questo modo in fase “toro”. Il … Continue reading

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