This tag is associated with 5 posts

Chaos in the Middle East. The aftermath of the #ParisAttacks

Extract from The World of ABC Economics, No. 1, 12/2015. FRANCESCO FINUCCI  * – The recent attacks carried out by fanatic Islamists in Paris came to feed the European dilemma over the way how the current crisis in the Middle East must be dealt with. The process following the attacks was a standard one: estimating … Continue reading

UK banks do NOT fear #Brexit!

1 December 2015 – According to a bank of England survey (the ‘Systemic Risk Survey’) published today, geopolitics (Syria and Middle East), Cyber terrorism and Euro Zone (Sovereign risks) pose more threat to the UK financial system than uncertainties arising in the UK (‘Brexit’ or general elections). The seven risks most frequently cited in the … Continue reading

The Gaddafi lesson for Syria. Will VIX and Brent Oil follow the same pattern?

Stefano Fugazzi (ABC Economics) – The odds are against Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. As the conflict in Syria intensifies with US President Obama urging Russia to “act together against terror”, Assad’s days in power are nearing the end. Will VIX and Brent Oil follow the same pattern? The following analysis aims at observing how VIX … Continue reading

VIX and Terrorism. Why a coincidence with no causal effects

Stefano Fugazzi (ABC Economics) – Earlier this week we published two interesting researches elaborated by ABC Economics which assessed whether market movers could have possibly anticipated the occurrence of terrorist acts. The VIX Index Always Predicts Terrorist Attacks (?) Gold and Oil contraddict VIX Index on terror attack warnings To test this hypothesis we selected: … Continue reading

The VIX Index Always Predicts Terrorist Attacks (?)

A research by Stefano Fugazzi (ABC Economics) – Earlier today we published an analysis by Nik Crepaldi highlighting the fact that the VIX Index rose ahead of the Paris Attacks. Hereafter I extended the analysis to cover some of the most notable Al-Qaeda/ISIS-related terrorist acts since 9/11. But firstly, let us briefly define the VIX … Continue reading

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